Top Cement Economist Predicts: 2025 Will Be the Year Construction Wakes Up and Smells the Concrete

2025 should be a Great year for Concrete!

AURORA, CO — The Portland Cement Association (PCA) annual Fall Meeting turned heads this week when Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist and Sr. Vice President of Market Intelligence, unveiled his 2025 forecast for the construction industry. Spoiler alert: It's all about interest rates, housing markets, and, of course, concrete.

"Think of 2025 as the year construction takes a deep breath, stretches its legs, and remembers what optimism feels like," Sullivan quipped to a room full of cement company executives, some of whom reportedly cheered at the mere mention of mortgage rate drops.

Concrete 2025: Key takeaways from Sullivan’s forecast include

• Construction’s Slow Dance with Interest Rates: Sullivan predicts the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts will begin to ripple through the economy by mid-2025, transforming the current “construction coma” into a mild jog.

• Mortgages, Mortgages, Mortgages: Expect rates to dip to 5.5% mid-year and hit 5.0% by the holidays. Sullivan calls this the “Netflix and Chill” era for real estate, with home affordability luring buyers back to the market like a Black Friday sale on flat-screen TVs.

• The Home Price Rollercoaster: Lower interest rates will bring a flood of existing homes onto the market, offsetting demand and driving down prices. "It’s like a buy-one-get-one-free sale on housing,” Sullivan joked, though no one laughed because economists rarely joke.

• Nonresidential Construction: The Patient Turtle: Sullivan admits this sector won’t see real improvement until 2026. “Occupancy rates and Net Operating Income need to join the party first,” he said, which is economist-speak for “patience, people.”

• Public Projects: Infrastructure Law FTW: Thanks to the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, public construction activity is expected to keep the lights on and the concrete mixers spinning.

Despite the challenges, Sullivan remains cautiously optimistic. "2025 is shaping up to be the year we pave the way—literally and figuratively—for a brighter future."

For now, the cement industry will continue doing what it does best: laying the foundation for tomorrow, one bag at a time.

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